Threats and opportunities for fruit and vegetable supply-chains in BC: A geospatial and survey-based assessment

This Mitacs funded project uses machine learning and geospatial analysis to model agricultural suitability and agri-technology adoption, supporting resilient and sustainable food systems in BC.

Climate change is reshaping agricultural conditions across British Columbia, creating both risks and opportunities for fruit and vegetable production. This project uses machine learning and geospatial analysis to model how changing temperature, precipitation, and growing season conditions may affect crop suitability under current and future climate scenarios. The climate modeling identifies areas where agricultural production may become more vulnerable, as well as areas where changing conditions may create new opportunities for crop production. These outputs help show where adaptation efforts may be most needed and where emerging agricultural technologies may help maintain or expand production.

The project also examines how farmers and agricultural stakeholders respond to these changing conditions through survey-based research. The surveys explore how different policy, climate risk, and opportunity scenarios influence the adoption of agri-technologies such as digital agriculture, controlled environment agriculture, and agri-genomics. Machine learning is used to analyze survey responses and identify the policies, scenarios, and socioeconomic factors that most strongly influence technology adoption, helping to determine where and under what conditions producers are most likely to adopt these innovations.

By bringing these two components together, the project links climate vulnerability and opportunity with real-world adaptation pathways. The climate models identify areas that are suitable or unsuitable for agricultural production, while the survey results indicate which policies and supports are most likely to encourage agri-technology adoption within those mapped areas. Together, these findings support more targeted and evidence-based strategies for resilient and sustainable agriculture in British Columbia.